Oldmans Pick For Wild Card Weekend

[oldmanTED]

This weekend both NFC Wild Card games involve division rivals who know each other well and have met twice already this year. The St.Louis/Seattle game matches two teams that, to be kind, are mediocre at best. Add that the game is projected to be played in weather conditions currently forecasting for 60% chance of snow and we'll take a pass on that game and focus in on the Minnesota/Green Bay game. As stated, this will be the third meeting of the year between these two old rivals and both games have resulted in the Packers squeaking out 3 point wins with identical scores of 34-31. The first one was painful on this board as the Packers controlled the game for almost its entirety and led 31-17 with 5+ minutes to play only to go into prevent defense allowing the Vikings to tie the game at 31 with a little over 1 minute to play and thereby allowing Brett Favre to march Green Bay into field goal position and win the game but not the cover the 3.5 point spread and hand us a loss on our only 3* play of the year too date. In the second game, the Packers came from behind to once again win with a late field goal. Feeling here is that the Packers can definitely move the ball on the ground as well as through the air against this Viking defense. The Vikings offense may find it a bit more difficult moving the ball on the ground, so most likely will decide that the best chance to win is having Culpepper try to connect with Moss and company. With the weather currently projected as dry, with winds between 5-15 miles per hour and the temperature around 35 degrees, belief here is that these teams should be able to put points on the board against one another and the current line seems quite generous. Hence,

1* Minnesota/Green Bay Over 49 (Free Half Point)

Overall Unit Record YTD: (46-35.2)(+10.80) 3*(0-1)(+3.30) 2*(2-0)(+4.00) 1*(42-29-1)(+10.10)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (44-30-1) 59.46%
NFL Record YTD: (12-4)(+6.40)
NCAAF Record YTD: (32-26-1)(+4.40)

Plays are rated 1*-3*

Good Luck All.

 

[GREENHEAD]

I timed this one perfect,as I went to the Fish Market for dinner and came back to see OMT likes something.Its a beautifull day,goodluck and PLEASE stay healthy.GREENHEAD

 

[oldmanTED]

Greenhead:

I absolutely love The Fish Market. When I use to spend a couple of weeks each year during the summer at Del Mar, I would stay at the Winner's Circle Resort just to be right next door to The Fish Market and directly across from the track. Nothing like a great selection of fish and seafood after a day at the races. My wife and I absolutely love it and I've taken her often to the one close by you. It's a small world, isn't it?

 

[Mr.Leisure]

Sounds like a winner,i`m on it! For people without the 1/2 PT. option it is available at pinn. and abc islands at 49.

By the way thanks for the halftime winner for the orange bowl.

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr. Leisure:

Glad to hear you picked up on my halftime play in the Orange Bowl as I was thinking about you and hoped maybe you chose to follow my thoughts on trying to middle at least a portion of your play. Either way, sounds like you got some back in the second half. Best of luck to you this weekend.

 

[Mr.Leisure]

I tried to middle my whole bet,thank god but i also had the under 54.Your halftime play saved me.

Can`t wait for the games this weekend !

 

[oldmanTED]

Mr. Leisure:

Wild Card weekend can be a little tricky as these teams are not the top tier teams and each have weaknesses that can be exploited. In my opinion, the real season begins next week with the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Just my thoughts. Have fun but be careful.

 

[GREENHEAD]

It is a small world,and guess what,Im gonna see you there one day and I'm gonna pick you out.I know your age,I know your lean,you dont drink or smoke and you have a BIG nose.Well If your wife says "Ted", and your yawning Im going to SCREAM your "OLD MAN TED". LOL--GREENHEAD--

 

[Hitman26]

Goodluck Teddy. Line already moving in the right direction. I will do a good weather dance so that the current forecast holds up.






Hitman

 

[oldmanTED]

Greenhead & Hitman:

What more can I say. I love it.k:

 

[mj23]

Good luck on your pick TED the only thing i dont understand is why the # is so low?

 

[Kojak]

Oldmanted,

Glad to see you are feeling better. I like the over here also but I am not going to pull trigger if I do until game day as the weather has been horrible in this part of the country. Have you seen a weather forecast and what are your thoughts on this game going over with bad weather if it is still here? Best of luck!

 

[CedarCreaker]

OMT, FWIW I too like the "O" alot but like other posters here am suspicious of the low low #.......2 65 point games previous and now they put up a low # of 49......I smell something and I hope it is that fish place you'all were talkin bout earlier......GL to all of us....

Cedar

 

[ESQAJM]

The weather forcast is for perfect football weather Sunday. In the 30's with no rain, slight wind.
ESQAJM

 

[oldmanTED]

Regarding the weather. Just checked the latest from www.weather.com and it is currently projecting a daytime temperature in Green Bay of 34 with overnight lows of 25. This is actually and improvement from yesterday by a couple of degrees. With local game time at 3:30 p.m. CST, the temperature should be very good for football. Winds are projected to be very mild as well. Really don't see weather being a problem here. That is not the case in either Seattle or San Diego as rain and snow are forecast for Seattle with a temperature high of 40 degrees, and rain and wind are forecast for San Diego with a temperature high of 62, but that's during the day and this game will be at 5:00 p.m. PST.

As to the number. Frankly, it is my policy not to be concerned about why a particular number is posted, but rather to look for soft numbers, unless there are injuries associated with the line. In this game, the only change in injuries of note are in the Minnesota secondary, where cornerback Ralph Brown who has been out 3 weeks returns, but strong safety Corey Chavous was injured last week and is out for the playoffs. For the Packers, the key injury is wide receiver Robert Ferguson who has been out the last two games and will miss this one as well. Hasn't slowed the Packer offense down however.

To me, I'm seeing at least one of these teams reaching into the mid 30's while the other reaches the mid 20's. Even if neither team reaches 30, a score of 27-24 still covers the number. On any given Sunday, anything can happen, but belief here is that these two teams will play to form once it is all said and done. The line on this game opened as low as 47 in some places and I believe will continue to rise as game time approaches.

 

[Kojak]

oldmanted,

I appreciate the information on the weather. I live in Chicago and as of today it is still bitterly cold and with GB 3.5 hours to the North is why I questioned playing the over though I also liked that play. Keep up the great work and best of luck.

 

[colbyson]

totally agree

 

[lostucanes]

Oldman, I went to the Fish Market in Del Mar and wasn't impressed. The Fish Market at Seaport Village, IMO, is much better

 

[BigLou+]

oldmanTED

"Wild Card weekend can be a little tricky as these teams are not the top tier teams and each have weaknesses that can be exploited. In my opinion, the real season begins next week with the Divisional Round of the playoffs."

Couldn't have said it better myself. There looks to be great value next week. Good luck to you.

Big Lou

 

[mhk]

Wise pick OMT.. Seems as if the second half over (when posted) will be a play w/ these two teams...gl